Apparently the US is not in a stock market bubble, but that’s not exactly what the data is saying.
This morning, we saw the following from Tobias Levkovich at Citi Research. It’s a chart of his US Panic/Euphoria index, which incorporates multiple indicators to give a reading of current market sentiment in the US.
And it’s errr . . . currently higher than during the dotcom/ telco bubble of 1999:
It’ll be of little surprise to anyone following market trends at the moment -- whether it be in electric car stocks, ESG names, SPACs, or bitcoin, where valuations are screaming higher and higher each day.
FT Alphaville has been thinking about this a little, particularly over lockdown 3.0, and we’re trying to figure out whether what we’re seeing is yet another passing fad or something more fundamental. Because there is no denying that there’s been a shift in market structure over the past few years. Whether it be in the proliferation of free trading platforms, the rise in market share of passive investment strategies, or the ease with which social media can fuel speculative manias further, it does feel like something is different.
Thoughts and comments welcome below.