Drinks industry chiefs may be hoping for a new “roaring 20s” when coronavirus restrictions ease, but millions of households have already embarked on an era of upmarket stiff drinks in their living rooms as Covid-19 reshaped global drinking culture.
Global sales of tequila, vodka and liqueurs outperformed the broader alcohol market in 2020 as housebound consumers took to sipping high-end spirits and mixing their own cocktails.
While parts of the population faced acute financial hardship because of coronavirus, wealthier consumers who kept their jobs have been left with extra disposable income as holidays and going out became all but impossible.
That has resulted in “huge trading up” when it comes to alcohol, said Ed Mundy, analyst at Jefferies, as these cash-rich drinkers also took advantage of lower retail prices compared with those for the same drinks served in bars and restaurants.
“If you’re stuck at home and you don’t want to go out to the shops, it’s easier to buy a big bottle of spirits than 24 beers. There’s more cocktail making at home going on . . . people are trading up from brandy to cognac, from cheap drinks to expensive drinks,” said Mr Mundy.
Sales of prestige spirits, which cost more than $100 a bottle, are forecast to grow by more than two-fifths to 2024, about four times faster than standard brands and almost twice the growth of premium bottles, according to drinks analytics group IWSR.
The world’s largest distiller Diageo said its tequila sales shot up 80 per cent last year, driven by the high-end brands Don Julio and Casamigos, which was co-founded by the actor George Clooney. The boom, centred in the US, has followed a resurgence of upmarket “pure agave” tequila as a sipping drink.
“The trend of moving to spirits away from beer and wine has accelerated in the pandemic,” said Ivan Menezes, chief executive of Diageo. The group’s North American chief said late last year that household penetration for spirits had increased in 2020 at three times the rate of beer, and double that of wine.
Pernod Ricard said its whisky brands Jameson and The Glenlivet had shown “solid growth” despite the closure of stores in airports and train stations, which have traditionally been a major sales outlet for spirits.
Globally, overall alcoholic drinks consumption fell just 8 per cent in 2020 by volume from the year before despite many pubs, bars and restaurants being closed, according to IWSR figures. But there were substantial differences between countries.
Shifts in drinking patterns, at first glance, appear similar in the UK and US: sales through the “on-trade”, which includes pubs, bars, restaurants and clubs, dropped by half in 2020 in both countries, while retail sales rose 12 per cent.
Yet overall drinking was far higher in the US last year, since retail sales of drinks to consume at home account for much more of the market. Before Covid-19, a fifth of alcohol sales by volume took place in bars and restaurants in the US, while it was twice the level in the UK, Jefferies said.
In South Africa, where periodic alcohol bans have been imposed, and Turkey, where drinks sales are closely linked to tourism, consumption dropped by about a third. Many countries still turned to a spirit of choice: Brazilians favoured gin, Colombians liqueurs and vodka, said Diageo.
While all drinks makers suffered to some extent from pub closures, brewers were especially hit: the world’s second-largest brewer Heineken announced 8,000 job cuts this year as it struggles to deal with the drop in beer drinking.
In China, where the pandemic originated but where the virus was brought relatively quickly under control, drinking declined by 9 per cent but retail sales of drinks by volume were up 23 per cent, the highest among major markets. Kweichow Moutai, which makes a luxury version of the national white spirit baijiu, reported a 10 per cent sales rise for the year.
For those with a thirst for less fiery drinks — Kweichow Moutai comes in at 35 to 60 per cent alcohol — another trend has taken hold: the cocktail in a can.
Ready-to-drink cocktails, a broad group that also includes the flavoured alcoholic sparkling water known as hard seltzer, were the only category to record growth last year. Sales increased by more than 40 per cent, a surge that began in the US but is also evident in other markets such as the UK and China.
As vaccinations are rolled out, analysts at Bernstein expect a return to “near normal” in terms of socialising by the middle of 2021. “As the vaccines are rolled out and lockdowns ease, there will be enormous pent-up demand to socialise, glass in hand,” said Trevor Stirling, analyst at Bernstein.
And entrepreneurs are making a similar bet; in the UK, despite the pain of coronavirus, the Wine & Spirits Trade Association said a record number of new distillers were registered in 2020.